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Bitcoin (BTC) wobbled amid a series of macro and geopolitical shocks in early 2026, but key market plumbing held up better than price action alone might suggest. A new analysis from Kaiko Research argues that while digital assets were swept into broader risk-off moves, improvements in 'liquidity' and derivatives positioning point to a market that absorbed stress without a lasting breakdown.
In a recent report covering performance from January through mid-April 2026, Kaiko Research analyst Thomas Probst evaluated cross-asset returns, correlations, realized volatility, spot-market depth, and trends in perpetual futures open interest. The central takeaway: expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve policy and escalating Middle East tensions were the primary forces shaping prices, often overpowering crypto-specific narratives.
Kaiko highlighted January 30 as a key inflection point, citing news that Kevin Warsh had been nominated as the next Federal Reserve chair. The development, coming as risk sentiment was already weakening, contributed to a sharper pullback across risk assets—crypto included—by intensifying uncertainty around the path of monetary policy.
Across markets, the divergence in outcomes underscored how macro shocks dominated early-2026 pricing. Bitcoin underperformed several major traditional assets over the period, while the S&P 500 index (SPX) broadly held near balanced levels. Gold stayed positive as investors leaned into defensive positioning. Oil, however, registered the most dramatic reaction: Kaiko estimates crude surged roughly 60% after the Middle East conflict worsened, reflecting supply disruption fears and renewed focus on the Strait of Hormuz.
The report also points to a notable shift in how Bitcoin traded relative to other asset classes. Since mid-March, the 30-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the SPX strengthened decisively in positive territory, suggesting BTC behaved less like an idiosyncratic alternative asset and more like a macro-sensitive risk instrument. Kaiko attributed the move to improving U.S. growth signals—such as PMI readings remaining in expansion—and a market that appeared to digest Iran-related headlines more quickly, allowing risk appetite to rebuild alongside Bitcoin’s rebound.
Bitcoin’s relationship with gold moved in the opposite direction for a time. Around mid-March, BTC’s correlation with gold slipped into negative territory as Bitcoin recovered while gold softened—evidence, Kaiko said, of capital rotating from defensive assets back toward cyclical exposure once the initial shock faded. In April, that gap narrowed as the correlation drifted back into positive territory, hinting at a more complex and fluid allocation regime rather than a clean risk-on/risk-off split.